Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
Houston Astros 55% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Astros:
- Offensive Efficiency. Astros offense (4.4 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Astros are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Astros ELO 1503 vs Blue Jays ELO 1467 (diff: +36)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blue Jays defeated the Astros 5-4.
Our model predicted the Astros would win with 55% confidence, but the Blue Jays pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Blue Jays and was a notable factor: Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Astros (4.8 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Astros and was a contributing factor: Astros offense (4.4 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Astros and was a notable factor: Astros are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blue Jays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Astros
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Astros
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Astros
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Astros
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Astros has a 55% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.