MLB report card: week of 2026-08-03 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
57.8%
hit rate
0.245
Brier score
37 of 64 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Astros at PadresSD 56.7% pre-game — final SD 3–HOU 6
- Twins at BrewersMIL 56.3% pre-game — final MIL 6–MIN 8
- Pirates at BrewersMIL 55.9% pre-game — final MIL 3–PIT 4
- Mets at PiratesPIT 55.7% pre-game — final PIT 4–NYM 6
- Angels at MarlinsMIA 55.6% pre-game — final MIA 3–LAA 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Reds at NationalsWSH 57.5% pre-game — final WSH 5–CIN 3
- Tigers at GiantsSF 56.3% pre-game — final SF 5–DET 2
- Pirates at BrewersMIL 55.9% pre-game — final MIL 5–PIT 2
- Pirates at BrewersMIL 55.9% pre-game — final MIL 4–PIT 2
- Pirates at BrewersMIL 55.9% pre-game — final MIL 4–PIT 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals at Phillies Mon, Aug 3 | PHI 51.9% · WSH 48.1% | PHI 6–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Yankees Mon, Aug 3 | NYY 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYY 7–STL 13 | Miss |
| Pirates at Brewers Mon, Aug 3 | MIL 55.9% · PIT 44.1% | MIL 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Giants at Rangers Tue, Aug 4 | TEX 54.4% · SF 45.6% | TEX 1–SF 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Cubs Tue, Aug 4 | CHC 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CHC 10–LAD 5 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Astros Tue, Aug 4 | HOU 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | HOU 1–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Rockies Tue, Aug 4 | COL 54.7% · TB 45.3% | COL 9–TB 13 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Tue, Aug 4 | ARI 52.4% · SD 47.6% | ARI 5–SD 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Orioles Tue, Aug 4 | BAL 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | BAL 3–LAA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Reds Tue, Aug 4 | CIN 54.8% · OAK 45.2% | CIN 5–OAK 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Guardians Tue, Aug 4 | CLE 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CLE 2–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Tue, Aug 4 | PHI 51.9% · WSH 48.1% | PHI 5–WSH 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Yankees Tue, Aug 4 | NYY 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYY 2–STL 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Red Sox Tue, Aug 4 | BOS 53.1% · CWS 46.9% | BOS 14–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Tue, Aug 4 | ATL 54.7% · MIA 45.3% | ATL 4–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Brewers Tue, Aug 4 | MIL 55.9% · PIT 44.1% | MIL 4–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Royals Tue, Aug 4 | KC 54.3% · MIN 45.7% | KC 8–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Cubs Wed, Aug 5 | CHC 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CHC 5–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Rangers Wed, Aug 5 | TEX 54.4% · SF 45.6% | TEX 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Astros Wed, Aug 5 | HOU 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | HOU 7–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Rockies Wed, Aug 5 | COL 54.7% · TB 45.3% | COL 7–TB 9 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Wed, Aug 5 | ARI 52.4% · SD 47.6% | ARI 4–SD 9 | Miss |
| Tigers at Mariners Wed, Aug 5 | SEA 54.9% · DET 45.1% | SEA 0–DET 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Astros Wed, Aug 5 | HOU 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | HOU 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Cubs Wed, Aug 5 | CHC 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CHC 7–LAD 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Rangers Wed, Aug 5 | TEX 54.4% · SF 45.6% | TEX 6–SF 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Rockies Wed, Aug 5 | COL 54.7% · TB 45.3% | COL 0–TB 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Orioles Wed, Aug 5 | BAL 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | BAL 5–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Phillies Wed, Aug 5 | PHI 51.9% · WSH 48.1% | PHI 4–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Athletics at Reds Wed, Aug 5 | CIN 54.8% · OAK 45.2% | CIN 3–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Guardians Wed, Aug 5 | CLE 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CLE 5–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Yankees Wed, Aug 5 | NYY 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYY 1–STL 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Red Sox Wed, Aug 5 | BOS 54.4% · CWS 45.6% | BOS 4–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Wed, Aug 5 | ATL 54.7% · MIA 45.3% | ATL 4–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Pirates at Brewers Wed, Aug 5 | MIL 55.9% · PIT 44.1% | MIL 4–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Royals Wed, Aug 5 | KC 54.3% · MIN 45.7% | KC 2–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Mariners Thu, Aug 6 | SEA 54.9% · DET 45.1% | SEA 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Thu, Aug 6 | ARI 52.4% · SD 47.6% | ARI 10–SD 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Orioles Thu, Aug 6 | BAL 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | BAL 1–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Reds Thu, Aug 6 | CIN 54.8% · OAK 45.2% | CIN 6–OAK 5 | Hit |
| Mets at Guardians Thu, Aug 6 | CLE 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CLE 6–NYM 13 | Miss |
| Pirates at Brewers Thu, Aug 6 | MIL 55.9% · PIT 44.1% | MIL 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Cubs Thu, Aug 6 | CHC 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | CHC 3–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Mariners Thu, Aug 6 | SEA 54.9% · DET 45.1% | SEA 0–DET 11 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Thu, Aug 6 | PHI 51.9% · WSH 48.1% | PHI 7–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Red Sox Thu, Aug 6 | BOS 55.7% · CWS 44.3% | BOS 12–CWS 11 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Thu, Aug 6 | ATL 54.7% · MIA 45.3% | ATL 11–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Twins at Royals Thu, Aug 6 | KC 54.3% · MIN 45.7% | KC 3–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Fri, Aug 7 | ARI 52.4% · SD 47.6% | ARI 1–SD 5 | Miss |
| Mets at Pirates Fri, Aug 7 | PIT 55.7% · NYM 44.3% | PIT 4–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Phillies Fri, Aug 7 | PHI 52.3% · TOR 47.7% | PHI 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Nationals Fri, Aug 7 | WSH 57.5% · CIN 42.5% | WSH 5–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Braves at Yankees Fri, Aug 7 | NYY 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | NYY 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Red Sox Fri, Aug 7 | BOS 54.1% · OAK 45.9% | BOS 13–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Marlins Fri, Aug 7 | MIA 55.6% · LAA 44.4% | MIA 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Brewers Fri, Aug 7 | MIL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | MIL 6–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Fri, Aug 7 | CWS 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | CWS 2–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Cubs at Royals Sat, Aug 8 | KC 54.5% · CHC 45.5% | KC 4–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rangers Sat, Aug 8 | TEX 55.8% · BAL 44.2% | TEX 2–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cardinals Sat, Aug 8 | STL 53.0% · COL 47.0% | STL 3–COL 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks Sat, Aug 8 | ARI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | ARI 4–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Padres Sat, Aug 8 | SD 56.7% · HOU 43.3% | SD 3–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Mariners Sat, Aug 8 | SEA 53.9% · TB 46.1% | SEA 1–TB 2 | Miss |
| Tigers at Giants Sat, Aug 8 | SF 56.3% · DET 43.7% | SF 5–DET 2 | Hit |
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