Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Padres:
- Defensive Efficiency. Padres pitching/defense (4.2 RA/G) better than Astros (4.8 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Padres are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Padres ELO 1537 vs Astros ELO 1503 (diff: +34)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Padres 6-3.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 65% confidence, but the Astros pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Padres and was a notable factor: Padres pitching/defense (4.2 RA/G) better than Astros (4.8 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Padres and was a notable factor: Padres are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Padres ELO 1537 vs Astros ELO 1503 (diff: +34)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Diego Padres
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- ELO RatingFavors San Diego Padres
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Padres
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 65% win probability, while Astros has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.