Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cubs:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
- ELO Rating. Cubs ELO 1564 vs Blue Jays ELO 1467 (diff: +98)
- Home Field Advantage. Cubs are 0-0 at home this season
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cubs defeated the Blue Jays 3-2.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 75% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cubs and was a major factor: Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
- ELO Rating favored the Cubs and was a contributing factor: Cubs ELO 1564 vs Blue Jays ELO 1467 (diff: +98)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Cubs are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cubs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Cubs
- ELO RatingFavors Chicago Cubs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Recent FormFavors Chicago Cubs
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
Defensive Efficiency
Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Cubs (4.4 RA/G)
Recent Form
Cubs (87-71) in better form than Blue Jays (77-82)
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 75% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 25% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.