Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Tigers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Tigers pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Mariners (4.4 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency. Tigers offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Mariners (4.1 R/G)
- ELO Rating. Mariners ELO 1480 vs Tigers ELO 1522 (diff: -42)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Tigers defeated the Mariners 11-0.
Our model predicted the Tigers would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Tigers and was a contributing factor: Tigers pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Mariners (4.4 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Tigers and was a contributing factor: Tigers offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Mariners (4.1 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a contributing factor: Mariners are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Tigers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Tigers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Tigers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- ELO RatingFavors Detroit Tigers
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Tigers
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 40% win probability, while Tigers has a 60% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.