Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 58% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Phillies:
- Defensive Efficiency. Phillies pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Nationals (5.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Phillies are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Phillies ELO 1519 vs Nationals ELO 1493 (diff: +26)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Phillies 10-4.
Our model predicted the Phillies would win with 58% confidence, but the Nationals pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Phillies pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Nationals (5.0 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Phillies (4.5 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Phillies are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Nationals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Recent FormNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nationals
No player data available
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 58% win probability, while Nationals has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.