MLB2026 season
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Sep 16, 2026
WSH
Washington Nationals
0
vs
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
3
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- PHI at WSHWed, Sep 16, 2026—PHI 3–0
- WSH at PHIThu, Aug 6, 2026PHI 52%PHI 3–7
- WSH at PHIWed, Aug 5, 2026PHI 52%WSH 10–4
- WSH at PHITue, Aug 4, 2026PHI 52%PHI 0–5
- WSH at PHIMon, Aug 3, 2026PHI 52%PHI 3–6
- PHI at WSHThu, Jun 25, 2026WSH 58%PHI 10–5
- PHI at WSHWed, Jun 24, 2026WSH 58%PHI 5–4
- PHI at WSHTue, Jun 23, 2026WSH 58%PHI 14–9
- PHI at WSHMon, Jun 22, 2026WSH 64%WSH 1–4
- WSH at PHIWed, Apr 1, 2026PHI 55%PHI 5–6
- WSH at PHITue, Mar 31, 2026PHI 55%PHI 2–3
- WSH at PHIMon, Mar 30, 2026PHI 55%WSH 13–2
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
55%
6 of 11 decided games
Meetings graded
11
2026
Correct calls
6
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Injuries — Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
Washington Nationals
- Injuries — Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Nationals are 31-39 at home this season; Mets are 34-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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