Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nationals:
- Rest Days. Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Nationals ELO 1576 vs Phillies ELO 1481 (diff: +95)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: WSH 56% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 58% (−6)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Phillies 4-1.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 64% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Nationals and was a major factor: Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Nationals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Nationals
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Phillies
Nationals
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationals has a 64% win probability, while Phillies has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia.