Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Phillies:
- Offensive Efficiency. Phillies offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Phillies are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Phillies ELO 1519 vs Blue Jays ELO 1467 (diff: +53)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blue Jays defeated the Phillies 5-4.
Our model predicted the Phillies would win with 63% confidence, but the Blue Jays pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Phillies offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Blue Jays (4.0 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Phillies are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating favored the Phillies and was a contributing factor: Phillies ELO 1519 vs Blue Jays ELO 1467 (diff: +53)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blue Jays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- ELO RatingFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 63% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.