New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pirates:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pirates offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Pirates are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Pirates ELO 1512 vs Mets ELO 1473 (diff: +38)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Pirates 6-4.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 63% confidence, but the Mets pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pirates and was a contributing factor: Pirates offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pirates and was a notable factor: Pirates are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating favored the Pirates and was a contributing factor: Pirates ELO 1512 vs Mets ELO 1473 (diff: +38)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- ELO RatingFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mets
Pirates
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pirates has a 63% win probability, while Mets has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.