New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Guardians:
- Defensive Efficiency. Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Mets (4.5 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Guardians are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Guardians ELO 1508 vs Mets ELO 1473 (diff: +34)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Guardians 6-5.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 60% confidence, but the Mets pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Guardians and was a contributing factor: Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Mets (4.5 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Guardians are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Mets and was a contributing factor: Mets offense (4.3 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.1 R/G)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Mets
- ELO RatingFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mets
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 60% win probability, while Mets has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.