San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Diamondbacks are 0-0 at home this season
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Diamondbacks 5-1.
Our model predicted the Diamondbacks would win with 51% confidence, but the Padres pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Padres pitching/defense (4.2 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.4 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Diamondbacks are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar run production (4.5 vs 4.4 R/G)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Diego Padres
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 51% win probability, while Padres has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.