MLB2026 season
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Sep 27, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- ARI at SDSun, Sep 27, 2026SD 71%SD 4–9
- ARI at SDSat, Sep 26, 2026SD 70%SD 7–10
- ARI at SDFri, Sep 25, 2026SD 67%ARI 11–4
- SD at ARIThu, Aug 6, 2026ARI 52%SD 5–1
- SD at ARIWed, Aug 5, 2026ARI 52%ARI 4–10
- SD at ARITue, Aug 4, 2026ARI 52%SD 9–4
- SD at ARIMon, Aug 3, 2026ARI 52%ARI 1–5
- ARI at SDThu, Jul 9, 2026SD 57%ARI 3–1
- ARI at SDWed, Jul 8, 2026SD 57%SD 4–10
- ARI at SDTue, Jul 7, 2026SD 57%SD 1–4
- ARI at SDMon, Jul 6, 2026SD 57%ARI 8–0
- SD at ARISun, Apr 26, 2026ARI 55%ARI 7–12
- SD at ARISat, Apr 25, 2026ARI 55%SD 6–4
- ARI at SDSun, Mar 22, 2026SD 55%ARI 11–1
- SD at ARISun, Mar 15, 2026ARI 55%Tie 4–4
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
50%
7 of 14 decided games
Meetings graded
15
1 ties
Correct calls
7
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Offensive Efficiency — Diamondbacks offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.4 R/G)
San Diego Padres
- Injuries — Padres healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Padres are 46-31 at home this season; Brewers are 42-31 on the road
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