San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres head-to-head
Arizona Diamondbacks 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
ARI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks and the Padres played to a 4-4 draw.
Our model had predicted the Diamondbacks to win with 55% confidence. The game ended in a tie, a relatively rare outcome.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Diamondbacks (0 out) vs Padres (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Previous game55%SF win probability
- Next game55%ARI win probability
San Diego Padres
Other games on Mar 15, 2026
- 55%STL win probability
- 55%HOU win probability
- 55%NYY win probability
- 55%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 55% win probability, while Padres has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale, Arizona.