MLB report card: week of 2026-03-09 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
63.2%
hit rate
0.240
Brier score
36 of 57 decided · 3 ties
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Padres at AngelsLAA 55.6% pre-game — final LAA 2–SD 10
- Reds at RockiesCOL 55.6% pre-game — final COL 1–CIN 8
- Giants at GuardiansCLE 55.6% pre-game — final CLE 4–SF 5
- Nationals at MarlinsMIA 55.6% pre-game — final MIA 5–WSH 7
- Twins at RaysTB 55.6% pre-game — final TB 5–MIN 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Royals at MarinersSEA 55.6% pre-game — final SEA 4–KC 3
- Chicago White Sox at AthleticsOAK 55.6% pre-game — final OAK 11–CWS 7
- Cubs at RangersTEX 55.6% pre-game — final TEX 8–CHC 3
- Diamondbacks at AngelsLAA 55.6% pre-game — final LAA 4–ARI 1
- Cardinals at YankeesNYY 55.6% pre-game — final NYY 6–STL 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays at Tigers Mon, Mar 9 | DET 55.6% · TB 44.4% | DET 4–TB 4 | Tie |
| Orioles at Cardinals Mon, Mar 9 | STL 55.6% · BAL 44.4% | STL 7–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Braves Mon, Mar 9 | ATL 55.6% · MIN 44.4% | ATL 9–MIN 8 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Astros Mon, Mar 9 | HOU 55.6% · STL 44.4% | HOU 10–STL 3 | Hit |
| Phillies at Red Sox Mon, Mar 9 | BOS 55.6% · PHI 44.4% | BOS 5–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Mon, Mar 9 | CWS 55.6% · COL 44.4% | CWS 12–COL 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Giants Mon, Mar 9 | SF 55.6% · LAA 44.4% | SF 0–LAA 2 | Miss |
| Guardians at Royals Mon, Mar 9 | KC 55.6% · CLE 44.4% | KC 2–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Athletics at Reds Mon, Mar 9 | CIN 55.6% · OAK 44.4% | CIN 7–OAK 9 | Miss |
| Angels at Brewers Mon, Mar 9 | MIL 55.6% · LAA 44.4% | MIL 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Diamondbacks Mon, Mar 9 | ARI 55.6% · SEA 44.4% | ARI 2–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Padres Mon, Mar 9 | SD 55.6% · TEX 44.4% | SD 1–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Yankees Mon, Mar 9 | NYY 55.6% · MIA 44.4% | NYY 9–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Pirates at Mets Mon, Mar 9 | NYM 55.6% · PIT 44.4% | NYM 3–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Astros Tue, Mar 10 | HOU 55.6% · BAL 44.4% | HOU 7–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Twins at Rays Tue, Mar 10 | TB 55.6% · MIN 44.4% | TB 5–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Red Sox Tue, Mar 10 | BOS 55.6% · DET 44.4% | BOS 2–DET 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Tue, Mar 10 | PHI 55.6% · NYM 44.4% | PHI 2–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Braves at Blue Jays Tue, Mar 10 | TOR 55.6% · ATL 44.4% | TOR 7–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Yankees Tue, Mar 10 | NYY 55.6% · STL 44.4% | NYY 6–STL 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Marlins Tue, Mar 10 | MIA 55.6% · WSH 44.4% | MIA 5–WSH 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Athletics Tue, Mar 10 | OAK 55.6% · CWS 44.4% | OAK 11–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rangers Tue, Mar 10 | TEX 55.6% · CHC 44.4% | TEX 8–CHC 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Guardians Tue, Mar 10 | CLE 55.6% · SF 44.4% | CLE 4–SF 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Angels Tue, Mar 10 | LAA 55.6% · ARI 44.4% | LAA 4–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Angels Tue, Mar 10 | LAA 55.6% · SD 44.4% | LAA 2–SD 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Mariners Tue, Mar 10 | SEA 55.6% · KC 44.4% | SEA 4–KC 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Tue, Mar 10 | COL 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | COL 1–CIN 8 | Miss |
| Marlins at Nationals Sat, Mar 14 | WSH 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | WSH 1–MIA 4 | Miss |
| Rays at Twins Sat, Mar 14 | MIN 54.9% · TB 45.1% | MIN 6–TB 9 | Miss |
| Phillies at Yankees Sat, Mar 14 | NYY 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | NYY 4–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Pirates Sat, Mar 14 | PIT 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | PIT 8–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Tigers at Blue Jays Sat, Mar 14 | TOR 54.9% · DET 45.1% | TOR 1–DET 6 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Marlins Sat, Mar 14 | MIA 54.9% · STL 45.1% | MIA 7–STL 7 | Tie |
| Padres at Rangers Sat, Mar 14 | TEX 54.9% · SD 45.1% | TEX 22–SD 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Chicago White Sox Sat, Mar 14 | CWS 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CWS 7–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Athletics Sat, Mar 14 | OAK 54.9% · KC 45.1% | OAK 12–KC 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Sat, Mar 14 | SF 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | SF 7–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Reds Sat, Mar 14 | CIN 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | CIN 4–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Brewers Sat, Mar 14 | MIL 54.9% · COL 45.1% | MIL 8–COL 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Angels Sat, Mar 14 | LAA 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | LAA 6–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Padres Sat, Mar 14 | SD 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | SD 8–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rockies Sat, Mar 14 | COL 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | COL 4–CHC 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Astros Sat, Mar 14 | HOU 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | HOU 8–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Braves Sat, Mar 14 | ATL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | ATL 10–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cardinals Sun, Mar 15 | STL 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | STL 6–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Astros Sun, Mar 15 | HOU 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | HOU 1–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Yankees Sun, Mar 15 | NYY 54.9% · DET 45.1% | NYY 1–DET 12 | Miss |
| Braves at Phillies Sun, Mar 15 | PHI 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | PHI 0–ATL 1 | Miss |
| Pirates at Rays Sun, Mar 15 | TB 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | TB 6–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Sun, Mar 15 | BOS 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | BOS 7–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Mets Sun, Mar 15 | NYM 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | NYM 8–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Guardians Sun, Mar 15 | CLE 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | CLE 12–OAK 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Dodgers Sun, Mar 15 | LAD 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | LAD 5–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Cubs Sun, Mar 15 | CHC 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | CHC 8–LAD 14 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Sun, Mar 15 | KC 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | KC 10–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Giants Sun, Mar 15 | SF 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | SF 7–MIL 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Sun, Mar 15 | ARI 54.9% · SD 45.1% | ARI 4–SD 4 | Tie |
| Reds at Mariners Sun, Mar 15 | SEA 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | SEA 6–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Angels Sun, Mar 15 | LAA 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAA 6–COL 5 | Hit |
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