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Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers

MLBregular • 2026 Season
completed
Rangers logo
Rangers
Texas
8
vs
Cubs logo
Cubs
Chicago
3
TEX 56%44% CHC
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Texas Rangers 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Rangers:

  • Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)

What would change the call

Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even

  • If the home-field edge were neutral: TEX 52% (−4)

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VenueSurprise Stadium
Surprise, Arizona

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Cubs (away)
Rangers (home)
44%
Win probability
56%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Rangers defeated the Cubs 8-3.

Our model predicted the Rangers would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Home Field Advantage favored the Rangers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
  • Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
  • Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Rangers (0 out) vs Cubs (0 out)

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Rangers won 8-3

Rangers won by a solid margin

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Rangers at 56%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Texas Rangers
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • InjuriesNeutral
  • Recent FormNeutral
  • Rest DaysNeutral
  • Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

CHC
TEX
Home Field Advantage
Favours CHC|Favours TEX

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 3/9/2026, 7:27:55 AM

Key Players

Cubs

David PetersonSP
Kevin GausmanSP
Aaron CivaleRP
Clay HolmesSP
Shota ImanagaSP

Rangers

Kumar RockerSP
Jacob deGromSP
Nathan EovaldiSP
MacKenzie GoreSP
Jack LeiterSP

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Frequently Asked Questions

Rangers has a 56% win probability, while Cubs has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Surprise Stadium in Surprise, Arizona.

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