MLB2026 season
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
80%
4 of 5 decided games
Meetings graded
5
2026
Correct calls
4
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Houston Astros
- Home Field Advantage — Astros are 37-38 at home this season; Chicago White Sox are 31-43 on the road
Miami Marlins
- Injuries — Marlins healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage — Marlins are 38-28 at home this season; Braves are 39-33 on the road
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