Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Padres:
- Injuries. Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency. Padres pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.4 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Padres are 41-30 at home this season; Diamondbacks are 34-35 on the road
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Padres 11-4.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 67% confidence, but the Diamondbacks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Padres and was a major factor: Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful)
- Rest Days favored the Diamondbacks and was a major factor: Diamondbacks rest advantage (1 day rest) over Padres (back-to-back)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Padres pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.4 RA/G)
- The Diamondbacks are without 6 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Diego Padres
- Rest DaysFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Diego Padres
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest Days
Diamondbacks rest advantage (1 day rest) over Padres (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Diamondbacks
Padres
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 67% win probability, while Diamondbacks has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.