San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Dodgers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Dodgers offense (5.0 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.4 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency. Dodgers pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Padres (4.2 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Dodgers are 41-26 at home this season; Padres are 35-36 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Dodgers 4-2.
Our model predicted the Dodgers would win with 71% confidence, but the Padres pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Dodgers and was a notable factor: Dodgers offense (5.0 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.4 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Dodgers and was a contributing factor: Dodgers pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Padres (4.2 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Dodgers and was a notable factor: Dodgers are 41-26 at home this season; Padres are 35-36 on the road
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- Recent FormFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- ELO RatingFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Dodgers has a 71% win probability, while Padres has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California.