St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pirates:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pirates offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Pirates are 39-35 at home this season; Cardinals are 33-31 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pirates defeated the Cardinals 2-1.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Cardinals healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Pirates (5 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pirates and was a contributing factor: Pirates offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pirates and was a notable factor: Pirates are 39-35 at home this season; Cardinals are 33-31 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Pirates have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Cardinals have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pirates won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cardinals
Pirates
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pirates has a 55% win probability, while Cardinals has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.