San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 52% (0)
Win probability movement
ARI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Padres 5-1.
Our model predicted the Diamondbacks would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Diamondbacks (0 out) vs Padres (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Diamondbacks (1 day rest) vs Padres (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Diamondbacks
Padres
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 52% win probability, while Padres has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.