Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Padres:
- Injuries. Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency. Padres pitching/defense (4.2 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.5 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Padres are 42-31 at home this season; Diamondbacks are 35-36 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Diamondbacks 9-4.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 71% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Padres and was a major factor: Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Padres pitching/defense (4.2 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.5 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Padres and was a notable factor: Padres are 42-31 at home this season; Diamondbacks are 35-36 on the road
- The Diamondbacks are without 6 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Diego Padres
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Diego Padres
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Recent FormNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Padres
Diamondbacks
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Padres | Diamondbacks | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -126 | -103 | +1.5 | 7.5 |
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 | +1.5 | 7.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Padres
No injuries reported
Diamondbacks
Key Players
Diamondbacks
Padres
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 71% win probability, while Diamondbacks has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.