Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cardinals:
- Defensive Efficiency. Cardinals pitching/defense (4.6 RA/G) better than Rockies (5.8 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Cardinals are 0-0 at home this season
- ELO Rating. Cardinals ELO 1479 vs Rockies ELO 1413 (diff: +66)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cardinals defeated the Rockies 3-2.
Our model predicted the Cardinals would win with 72% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Cardinals and was a major factor: Cardinals pitching/defense (4.6 RA/G) better than Rockies (5.8 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Cardinals are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Rockies and was a contributing factor: Rockies offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cardinals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Rockies
- ELO RatingFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Recent FormFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Rest DaysFavors Colorado Rockies
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Cardinals pitching/defense (4.6 RA/G) better than Rockies (5.8 RA/G)
Offensive Efficiency
Rockies offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
Recent Form
Cardinals (77-81) in better form than Rockies (57-101)
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rockies
Cardinals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cardinals has a 72% win probability, while Rockies has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.