Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Brewers:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Brewers ELO 1549 vs Pirates ELO 1514 (diff: +35)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIL 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
MIL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pirates defeated the Brewers 4-3.
Our model predicted the Brewers would win with 56% confidence, but the Pirates pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Brewers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
- ELO Rating favored the Brewers and was a contributing factor: Brewers ELO 1549 vs Pirates ELO 1514 (diff: +35)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pirates won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Brewers
Pirates
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pirates
Brewers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Brewers has a 56% win probability, while Pirates has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.