Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Marlins:
- Offensive Efficiency. Marlins offense (4.4 R/G) outpaces Angels (4.0 R/G)
- ELO Rating. Marlins ELO 1514 vs Angels ELO 1409 (diff: +105)
- Home Field Advantage. Marlins are 0-0 at home this season
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Angels defeated the Marlins 4-3.
Our model predicted the Marlins would win with 68% confidence, but the Angels pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Marlins and was a contributing factor: Marlins offense (4.4 R/G) outpaces Angels (4.0 R/G)
- ELO Rating favored the Marlins and was a contributing factor: Marlins ELO 1514 vs Angels ELO 1409 (diff: +105)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Marlins are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Angels won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Miami Marlins
- ELO RatingFavors Miami Marlins
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Miami Marlins
- Recent FormFavors Miami Marlins
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Angels
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 68% win probability, while Angels has a 32% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.