Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rays:
- Offensive Efficiency. Rays offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Mariners (4.1 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency. Rays pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Mariners (4.4 RA/G)
- Recent Form. Rays (96-62) in better form than Mariners (74-84)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Mariners 2-1.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 62% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Rays and was a notable factor: Rays offense (4.5 R/G) outpaces Mariners (4.1 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rays and was a contributing factor: Rays pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Mariners (4.4 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a contributing factor: Mariners are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 38% win probability, while Rays has a 62% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.