Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers 66% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Dodgers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Dodgers pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.4 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency. Dodgers offense (5.0 R/G) outpaces Diamondbacks (4.5 R/G)
- Recent Form. Dodgers (97-61) in better form than Diamondbacks (84-74)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Dodgers 4-3.
Our model predicted the Dodgers would win with 66% confidence, but the Diamondbacks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Dodgers and was a notable factor: Dodgers pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Diamondbacks (4.4 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Dodgers and was a notable factor: Dodgers offense (5.0 R/G) outpaces Diamondbacks (4.5 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a contributing factor: Diamondbacks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Recent FormFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- ELO RatingFavors Los Angeles Dodgers
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Dodgers
No player data available
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 34% win probability, while Dodgers has a 66% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.