MLB2026 season
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Fri, Aug 7, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- LAD at ARIFri, Aug 7, 2026ARI 55%ARI 3–4
- ARI at LADSun, Jul 12, 2026LAD 55%ARI 5–3
- ARI at LADSat, Jul 11, 2026LAD 55%ARI 9–2
- ARI at LADFri, Jul 10, 2026LAD 57%ARI 9–3
- LAD at ARIThu, Jun 4, 2026ARI 55%ARI 2–3
- LAD at ARIWed, Jun 3, 2026ARI 55%LAD 7–0
- LAD at ARITue, Jun 2, 2026ARI 55%LAD 6–5
- LAD at ARIMon, Jun 1, 2026ARI 55%ARI 1–4
- ARI at LADSat, Mar 28, 2026LAD 55%LAD 2–3
- ARI at LADFri, Mar 27, 2026LAD 55%LAD 4–5
- ARI at LADThu, Mar 26, 2026LAD 55%LAD 2–8
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
55%
6 of 11 decided games
Meetings graded
11
2026
Correct calls
6
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Offensive Efficiency — Diamondbacks offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.4 R/G)
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Injuries — Dodgers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Dodgers are 42-29 at home this season; Brewers are 44-31 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency — Dodgers pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Brewers (3.8 RA/G)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.

