Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers head-to-head
Arizona Diamondbacks 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
ARI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Dodgers 3-2.
Our model predicted the Diamondbacks would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Dodgers
No player data available
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Previous game55%ARI win probability
- Next game50%WSH win probability
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Previous game55%ARI win probability
- Next game53%LAD win probability
Other games on Jun 5, 2026
- 55%CHC win probability
- 54%HOU win probability
- 52%SF win probability
- 53%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 55% win probability, while Dodgers has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.