MLB2026 season
Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Thu, Jun 4, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
25%
1 of 4 decided games
Meetings graded
4
2026
Correct calls
1
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Houston Astros
- Home Field Advantage — Astros are 37-38 at home this season; Chicago White Sox are 31-43 on the road
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Injuries — Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Pirates offense (4.7 R/G) outpaces Tigers (4.5 R/G)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.