San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Giants:
- Rest Days. Giants rest advantage (1 day rest) over Cubs (back-to-back)
- ELO Rating. Cubs ELO 1495 vs Giants ELO 1522 (diff: -27)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: SF 44% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SF 54% (+2)
Win probability movement
CHC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Giants defeated the Cubs 18-3.
Our model predicted the Giants would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Giants and was a major factor: Giants rest advantage (1 day rest) over Cubs (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Cubs (0 out) vs Giants (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Giants won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors San Francisco Giants
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- InjuriesNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors San Francisco Giants
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Giants rest advantage (1 day rest) over Cubs (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Giants
No player data available
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 48% win probability, while Giants has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.