MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Jul 19 | CWS at TOR Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays | CWS 45.1% | TOR 0–CWS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 17 | CWS at TOR Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays | CWS 45.1% | TOR 4–CWS 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 17 | LAD at NYY Dodgers at Yankees | LAD 45.1% | NYY 1–LAD 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 16 | NYM at PHI Mets at Phillies | NYM 45.1% | PHI 1–NYM 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | ARI at LAD Diamondbacks at Dodgers | ARI 45.1% | LAD 3–ARI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | BOS at NYM Red Sox at Mets | BOS 45.1% | NYM 2–BOS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | NYY at WSH Yankees at Nationals | NYY 45.1% | WSH 3–NYY 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | ARI at LAD Diamondbacks at Dodgers | ARI 45.1% | LAD 2–ARI 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | BOS at NYM Red Sox at Mets | BOS 45.1% | NYM 0–BOS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | NYY at WSH Yankees at Nationals | NYY 45.1% | WSH 2–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 10 | BOS at NYM Red Sox at Mets | BOS 45.1% | NYM 2–BOS 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | BOS at CWS Red Sox at Chicago White Sox | BOS 45.1% | CWS 1–BOS 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | NYY at TB Yankees at Rays | NYY 45.1% | TB 4–NYY 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 8 | BOS at CWS Red Sox at Chicago White Sox | BOS 45.1% | CWS 0–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 8 | COL at LAD Rockies at Dodgers | COL 45.1% | LAD 3–COL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 6 | NYM at ATL Mets at Braves | NYM 45.1% | ATL 6–NYM 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 6 | NYY at TB Yankees at Rays | NYY 45.1% | TB 1–NYY 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | SD at LAD Padres at Dodgers | SD 45.1% | LAD 2–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | CWS at CLE Chicago White Sox at Guardians | CWS 45.1% | CLE 6–CWS 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | MIN at NYY Twins at Yankees | MIN 45.1% | NYY 1–MIN 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | NYM at ATL Mets at Braves | NYM 45.1% | ATL 9–NYM 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | CWS at CLE Chicago White Sox at Guardians | CWS 45.1% | CLE 1–CWS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | MIN at NYY Twins at Yankees | MIN 45.1% | NYY 4–MIN 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | DET at NYY Tigers at Yankees | DET 45.1% | NYY 2–DET 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | LAD at OAK Dodgers at Athletics | LAD 45.1% | OAK 3–LAD 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | NYM at TOR Mets at Blue Jays | NYM 45.1% | TOR 0–NYM 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | DET at NYY Tigers at Yankees | DET 45.1% | NYY 3–DET 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | CWS at BAL Chicago White Sox at Orioles | CWS 45.1% | BAL 3–CWS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | LAD at OAK Dodgers at Athletics | LAD 45.1% | OAK 4–LAD 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 29 | CWS at BAL Chicago White Sox at Orioles | CWS 45.1% | BAL 2–CWS 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | LAD at SD Dodgers at Padres | LAD 45.1% | SD 2–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | KC at CWS Royals at Chicago White Sox | KC 45.1% | CWS 4–KC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | PHI at NYM Phillies at Mets | PHI 45.1% | NYM 4–PHI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | LAD at SD Dodgers at Padres | LAD 45.1% | SD 3–LAD 15 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 26 | PHI at NYM Phillies at Mets | PHI 45.1% | NYM 1–PHI 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 25 | CHC at NYM Cubs at Mets | CHC 45.1% | NYM 3–CHC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | LAD at MIN Dodgers at Twins | LAD 45.1% | MIN 3–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | CHC at NYM Cubs at Mets | CHC 45.1% | NYM 5–CHC 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | NYY at DET Yankees at Tigers | NYY 45.1% | DET 2–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | CLE at CWS Guardians at Chicago White Sox | CLE 45.1% | CWS 3–CLE 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | CHC at NYM Cubs at Mets | CHC 45.1% | NYM 3–CHC 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | LAD at MIN Dodgers at Twins | LAD 45.1% | MIN 3–LAD 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | NYY at DET Yankees at Tigers | NYY 45.1% | DET 3–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | BAL at LAA Orioles at Angels | BAL 45.1% | LAA 1–BAL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 22 | LAD at MIN Dodgers at Twins | LAD 45.1% | MIN 1–LAD 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | BAL at LAD Orioles at Dodgers | BAL 45.1% | LAD 1–BAL 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | CIN at NYY Reds at Yankees | CIN 45.1% | NYY 1–CIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | BAL at LAD Orioles at Dodgers | BAL 45.1% | LAD 2–BAL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | CIN at NYY Reds at Yankees | CIN 45.1% | NYY 2–CIN 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 18 | CWS at NYY Chicago White Sox at Yankees | CWS 45.1% | NYY 1–CWS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 251–300 of 860 surprises