Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Chicago White Sox
Chicago Chicago White Sox 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Chicago White Sox:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CWS 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
CWS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Guardians defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-3.
Our model predicted the Chicago White Sox would win with 55% confidence, but the Guardians pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Chicago White Sox and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Chicago White Sox (0 out) vs Guardians (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Chicago White Sox (back-to-back) vs Guardians (back-to-back)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Guardians won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Chicago White Sox has a 55% win probability, while Guardians has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois.