MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Jun 18 | NYM at PHI Mets at Phillies | NYM 45.1% | PHI 4–NYM 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 17 | NYM at CIN Mets at Reds | NYM 45.1% | CIN 1–NYM 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | NYY at TOR Yankees at Blue Jays | NYY 45.1% | TOR 3–NYY 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 13 | ATL at NYM Braves at Mets | ATL 45.1% | NYM 1–ATL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 13 | LAD at CWS Dodgers at Chicago White Sox | LAD 45.1% | CWS 1–LAD 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 13 | NYY at TOR Yankees at Blue Jays | NYY 45.1% | TOR 1–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 11 | LAD at PIT Dodgers at Pirates | LAD 45.1% | PIT 6–LAD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 10 | STL at NYM Cardinals at Mets | STL 45.1% | NYM 2–STL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 10 | NYY at CLE Yankees at Guardians | NYY 45.1% | CLE 4–NYY 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 9 | STL at NYM Cardinals at Mets | STL 45.1% | NYM 0–STL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 9 | LAD at PIT Dodgers at Pirates | LAD 45.1% | PIT 3–LAD 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 9 | NYY at CLE Yankees at Guardians | NYY 45.1% | CLE 2–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 8 | NYY at CLE Yankees at Guardians | NYY 45.1% | CLE 5–NYY 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 7 | NYM at SD Mets at Padres | NYM 45.1% | SD 3–NYM 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 7 | LAA at LAD Angels at Dodgers | LAA 45.1% | LAD 5–LAA 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 6 | CWS at PHI Chicago White Sox at Phillies | CWS 45.1% | PHI 3–CWS 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 5 | BOS at NYY Red Sox at Yankees | BOS 45.1% | NYY 3–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | LAD at ARI Dodgers at Diamondbacks | LAD 45.1% | ARI 0–LAD 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | CLE at NYY Guardians at Yankees | CLE 45.1% | NYY 4–CLE 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | NYM at SEA Mets at Mariners | NYM 45.1% | SEA 1–NYM 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | CWS at MIN Chicago White Sox at Twins | CWS 45.1% | MIN 0–CWS 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | LAD at ARI Dodgers at Diamondbacks | LAD 45.1% | ARI 5–LAD 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | CLE at NYY Guardians at Yankees | CLE 45.1% | NYY 4–CLE 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 31 | NYY at OAK Yankees at Athletics | NYY 45.1% | OAK 8–NYY 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 31 | PHI at LAD Phillies at Dodgers | PHI 45.1% | LAD 3–PHI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 30 | NYY at OAK Yankees at Athletics | NYY 45.1% | OAK 2–NYY 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | NYY at KC Yankees at Royals | NYY 45.1% | KC 0–NYY 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | NYY at KC Yankees at Royals | NYY 45.1% | KC 1–NYY 15 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | MIN at CWS Twins at Chicago White Sox | MIN 45.1% | CWS 3–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | CIN at NYM Reds at Mets | CIN 45.1% | NYM 2–CIN 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | CIN at NYM Reds at Mets | CIN 45.1% | NYM 2–CIN 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | NYY at KC Yankees at Royals | NYY 45.1% | KC 3–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | LAD at MIL Dodgers at Brewers | LAD 45.1% | MIL 1–LAD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 23 | LAD at MIL Dodgers at Brewers | LAD 45.1% | MIL 3–LAD 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 23 | CWS at SF Chicago White Sox at Giants | CWS 45.1% | SF 4–CWS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 21 | TOR at NYY Blue Jays at Yankees | TOR 45.1% | NYY 0–TOR 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 21 | NYM at WSH Mets at Nationals | NYM 45.1% | WSH 1–NYM 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 21 | LAD at SD Dodgers at Padres | LAD 45.1% | SD 0–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | TOR at NYY Blue Jays at Yankees | TOR 45.1% | NYY 1–TOR 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | CWS at SEA Chicago White Sox at Mariners | CWS 45.1% | SEA 1–CWS 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | LAD at SD Dodgers at Padres | LAD 45.1% | SD 4–LAD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 18 | NYM at WSH Mets at Nationals | NYM 45.1% | WSH 7–NYM 16 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | LAD at LAA Dodgers at Angels | LAD 45.1% | LAA 1–LAD 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | LAD at LAA Dodgers at Angels | LAD 45.1% | LAA 2–LAD 15 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | SD at SEA Padres at Mariners | SD 45.1% | SEA 0–SD 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 15 | CHC at CWS Cubs at Chicago White Sox | CHC 45.1% | CWS 5–CHC 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 15 | MIL at MIN Brewers at Twins | MIL 45.1% | MIN 2–MIL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 14 | CHC at ATL Cubs at Braves | CHC 45.1% | ATL 0–CHC 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 14 | PHI at BOS Phillies at Red Sox | PHI 45.1% | BOS 1–PHI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 14 | STL at OAK Cardinals at Athletics | STL 45.1% | OAK 4–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 301–350 of 860 surprises