New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets head-to-head
Cincinnati Reds 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Reds:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CIN 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
CIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Reds 9-1.
Our model predicted the Reds would win with 55% confidence, but the Mets pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Reds and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Mets
Reds
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Cincinnati Reds
- Previous game55%CIN win probability
- Next game53%NYY win probability
New York Mets
- Previous game55%CIN win probability
- Next game55%PHI win probability
Other games on Jun 17, 2026
- 55%CHC win probability
- 55%TEX win probability
- 55%HOU win probability
- 55%SEA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Reds has a 55% win probability, while Mets has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.