MLB2026 season
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
NYM
New York Mets
2
vs
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
7
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- PHI at NYMSun, Sep 20, 2026—PHI 7–2
- PHI at NYMSat, Sep 19, 2026—NYM 3–10
- PHI at NYMFri, Sep 18, 2026—NYM 3–6
- PHI at NYMThu, Sep 17, 2026—PHI 3–0
- NYM at PHISun, Jul 19, 2026PHI 55%NYM 6–1
- NYM at PHISat, Jul 18, 2026PHI 55%PHI 1–6
- NYM at PHIThu, Jul 16, 2026PHI 55%NYM 4–1
- PHI at NYMSun, Jun 28, 2026NYM 55%PHI 5–4
- PHI at NYMSat, Jun 27, 2026NYM 55%NYM 2–6
- PHI at NYMFri, Jun 26, 2026NYM 55%PHI 2–1
- NYM at PHISun, Jun 21, 2026PHI 55%PHI 2–6
- NYM at PHISat, Jun 20, 2026PHI 55%PHI 3–15
- NYM at PHIThu, Jun 18, 2026PHI 55%NYM 6–4
- NYM at PHITue, Mar 10, 2026PHI 56%NYM 4–2
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10 decided games
Meetings graded
10
2026
Correct calls
4
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
New York Mets
- Defensive Efficiency — Mets pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Nationals (5.0 RA/G)
Philadelphia Phillies
- Injuries — Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
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