Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
MLBregular • 2026-2027 Season
Scheduled
NYM 55%45% PHI
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate
New York Mets 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mets:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Phillies (away)
Mets (home)
45%
Win probability
55%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Mets55%
has a slight edge to win
Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors NYM
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Mets
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
Sign in to see factor scores, charts, and what-if simulations
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
PHI
NYM
Home Field Advantage
Favours PHI|Favours NYM
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 6/24/2026, 8:45:03 AM
Key Players
Phillies
Aaron NolaSP
Zack WheelerSP
Seth JohnsonSP
Andrew PainterSP
Cristopher SanchezSP
Mets
Christian ScottSP
Zach ThorntonSP
Nolan McLeanSP
Freddy PeraltaSP
Jonah TongSP
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mets has a 55% win probability, while Phillies has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citi Field in Queens, New York.