New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Phillies:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHI 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Phillies 4-1.
Our model predicted the Phillies would win with 55% confidence, but the Mets pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mets
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 55% win probability, while Mets has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.