MLB report card: week of 2026-06-15 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
57.3%
hit rate
0.243
Brier score
51 of 89 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Royals at NationalsWSH 57.7% pre-game — final WSH 2–KC 6
- Guardians at BrewersMIL 56.0% pre-game — final MIL 2–CLE 4
- Angels at AthleticsOAK 55.4% pre-game — final OAK 7–LAA 9
- Angels at AthleticsOAK 55.4% pre-game — final OAK 0–LAA 7
- Cardinals at RoyalsKC 55.2% pre-game — final KC 10–STL 12
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Chicago White Sox at TigersDET 62.5% pre-game — final DET 4–CWS 3
- Royals at NationalsWSH 57.7% pre-game — final WSH 6–KC 4
- Royals at NationalsWSH 57.7% pre-game — final WSH 7–KC 3
- Orioles at DodgersLAD 56.6% pre-game — final LAD 6–BAL 5
- Pirates at RockiesCOL 56.3% pre-game — final COL 4–PIT 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins at Phillies Mon, Jun 15 | PHI 54.3% · MIA 45.7% | PHI 7–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Royals at Nationals Mon, Jun 15 | WSH 57.7% · KC 42.3% | WSH 7–KC 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Reds Mon, Jun 15 | CIN 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CIN 12–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Cardinals Mon, Jun 15 | STL 52.4% · SD 47.6% | STL 3–SD 0 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cubs Tue, Jun 16 | CHC 54.5% · COL 45.5% | CHC 5–COL 4 | Hit |
| Twins at Rangers Tue, Jun 16 | TEX 55.0% · MIN 45.0% | TEX 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Astros Tue, Jun 16 | HOU 53.7% · DET 46.3% | HOU 3–DET 9 | Miss |
| Angels at Diamondbacks Tue, Jun 16 | ARI 54.8% · LAA 45.2% | ARI 4–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Athletics Tue, Jun 16 | OAK 54.2% · PIT 45.8% | OAK 11–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Dodgers Tue, Jun 16 | LAD 54.9% · TB 45.1% | LAD 4–TB 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Phillies Tue, Jun 16 | PHI 54.3% · MIA 45.7% | PHI 8–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Nationals Tue, Jun 16 | WSH 57.7% · KC 42.3% | WSH 6–KC 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Tue, Jun 16 | BOS 51.0% · TOR 49.0% | BOS 1–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Yankees Tue, Jun 16 | NYY 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | NYY 12–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Reds Tue, Jun 16 | CIN 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CIN 5–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Braves Tue, Jun 16 | ATL 54.0% · SF 46.0% | ATL 2–SF 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Brewers Tue, Jun 16 | MIL 55.5% · CLE 44.5% | MIL 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Cardinals Tue, Jun 16 | STL 52.4% · SD 47.6% | STL 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cubs Wed, Jun 17 | CHC 54.5% · COL 45.5% | CHC 2–COL 5 | Miss |
| Twins at Rangers Wed, Jun 17 | TEX 55.0% · MIN 45.0% | TEX 2–MIN 12 | Miss |
| Tigers at Astros Wed, Jun 17 | HOU 55.4% · DET 44.6% | HOU 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Mariners Wed, Jun 17 | SEA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | SEA 3–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Diamondbacks Wed, Jun 17 | ARI 54.8% · LAA 45.2% | ARI 0–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Athletics Wed, Jun 17 | OAK 54.2% · PIT 45.8% | OAK 5–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Dodgers Wed, Jun 17 | LAD 54.9% · TB 45.1% | LAD 1–TB 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Reds Wed, Jun 17 | CIN 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | CIN 1–NYM 9 | Miss |
| Royals at Nationals Wed, Jun 17 | WSH 57.7% · KC 42.3% | WSH 2–KC 6 | Miss |
| Marlins at Phillies Wed, Jun 17 | PHI 54.3% · MIA 45.7% | PHI 4–MIA 12 | Miss |
| Tigers at Astros Wed, Jun 17 | HOU 55.4% · DET 44.6% | HOU 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Cardinals Wed, Jun 17 | STL 52.4% · SD 47.6% | STL 1–SD 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Dodgers Wed, Jun 17 | LAD 54.9% · TB 45.1% | LAD 5–TB 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Diamondbacks Wed, Jun 17 | ARI 54.8% · LAA 45.2% | ARI 8–LAA 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Wed, Jun 17 | BOS 52.8% · TOR 47.3% | BOS 0–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Yankees Wed, Jun 17 | NYY 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | NYY 10–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Giants at Braves Wed, Jun 17 | ATL 54.0% · SF 46.0% | ATL 5–SF 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Brewers Wed, Jun 17 | MIL 56.0% · CLE 44.0% | MIL 9–CLE 4 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cubs Thu, Jun 18 | CHC 54.5% · COL 45.5% | CHC 8–COL 6 | Hit |
| Orioles at Mariners Thu, Jun 18 | SEA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | SEA 3–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Pirates at Athletics Thu, Jun 18 | OAK 54.2% · PIT 45.8% | OAK 4–PIT 12 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Red Sox Thu, Jun 18 | BOS 52.8% · TOR 47.3% | BOS 3–TOR 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Brewers Thu, Jun 18 | MIL 56.0% · CLE 44.0% | MIL 2–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Rangers Thu, Jun 18 | TEX 55.0% · MIN 45.0% | TEX 3–MIN 9 | Miss |
| Orioles at Mariners Thu, Jun 18 | SEA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | SEA 3–BAL 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Phillies Thu, Jun 18 | PHI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | PHI 4–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Yankees Thu, Jun 18 | NYY 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | NYY 1–CWS 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Royals Thu, Jun 18 | KC 55.2% · STL 44.8% | KC 14–STL 6 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Fri, Jun 19 | OAK 55.4% · LAA 44.6% | OAK 5–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Cubs Fri, Jun 19 | CHC 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | CHC 16–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Tigers Fri, Jun 19 | DET 62.5% · CWS 37.5% | DET 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Yankees Fri, Jun 19 | NYY 53.1% · CIN 46.9% | NYY 5–CIN 0 | Hit |
| Giants at Marlins Fri, Jun 19 | MIA 55.9% · SF 44.1% | MIA 4–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rays Fri, Jun 19 | TB 52.8% · WSH 47.2% | TB 5–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Braves Fri, Jun 19 | ATL 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | ATL 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Rangers Sat, Jun 20 | TEX 51.6% · SD 48.4% | TEX 9–SD 7 | Hit |
| Guardians at Astros Sat, Jun 20 | HOU 56.0% · CLE 44.0% | HOU 9–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Royals Sat, Jun 20 | KC 55.2% · STL 44.8% | KC 6–STL 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rockies Sat, Jun 20 | COL 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | COL 4–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Sat, Jun 20 | OAK 55.4% · LAA 44.6% | OAK 12–LAA 11 | Hit |
| Twins at Diamondbacks Sat, Jun 20 | ARI 55.7% · MIN 44.3% | ARI 9–MIN 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Mariners Sat, Jun 20 | SEA 55.2% · BOS 44.8% | SEA 2–BOS 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Dodgers Sat, Jun 20 | LAD 56.6% · BAL 43.4% | LAD 6–BAL 5 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Tigers Sat, Jun 20 | DET 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | DET 4–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Yankees Sat, Jun 20 | NYY 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | NYY 2–CIN 10 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Cubs Sat, Jun 20 | CHC 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | CHC 6–TOR 8 | Miss |
| Padres at Rangers Sat, Jun 20 | TEX 53.4% · SD 46.6% | TEX 4–SD 6 | Miss |
| Brewers at Braves Sat, Jun 20 | ATL 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | ATL 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Marlins Sat, Jun 20 | MIA 54.2% · SF 45.8% | MIA 6–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rays Sat, Jun 20 | TB 52.8% · WSH 47.2% | TB 3–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Astros Sat, Jun 20 | HOU 54.3% · CLE 45.7% | HOU 1–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Sat, Jun 20 | PHI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | PHI 15–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rockies Sun, Jun 21 | COL 54.6% · PIT 45.4% | COL 2–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Athletics Sun, Jun 21 | OAK 55.4% · LAA 44.6% | OAK 0–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mariners Sun, Jun 21 | SEA 55.2% · BOS 44.8% | SEA 1–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Dodgers Sun, Jun 21 | LAD 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | LAD 2–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Twins at Diamondbacks Sun, Jun 21 | ARI 54.0% · MIN 46.0% | ARI 8–MIN 16 | Miss |
| Brewers at Braves Sun, Jun 21 | ATL 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | ATL 4–MIL 9 | Miss |
| Reds at Yankees Sun, Jun 21 | NYY 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | NYY 1–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Tigers Sun, Jun 21 | DET 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | DET 5–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Rays Sun, Jun 21 | TB 52.8% · WSH 47.2% | TB 4–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Marlins Sun, Jun 21 | MIA 54.2% · SF 45.8% | MIA 2–SF 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Royals Sun, Jun 21 | KC 55.2% · STL 44.8% | KC 10–STL 12 | Miss |
| Guardians at Astros Sun, Jun 21 | HOU 54.3% · CLE 45.7% | HOU 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Rangers Sun, Jun 21 | TEX 53.4% · SD 46.6% | TEX 4–SD 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Rockies Sun, Jun 21 | COL 54.6% · PIT 45.4% | COL 6–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Twins at Diamondbacks Sun, Jun 21 | ARI 54.0% · MIN 46.0% | ARI 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Athletics Sun, Jun 21 | OAK 55.4% · LAA 44.6% | OAK 7–LAA 9 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mariners Sun, Jun 21 | SEA 55.2% · BOS 44.8% | SEA 3–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Dodgers Sun, Jun 21 | LAD 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | LAD 1–BAL 12 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Sun, Jun 21 | PHI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | PHI 6–NYM 2 | Hit |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.