San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cardinals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Cardinals 6-1.
Our model predicted the Cardinals would win with 52% confidence, but the Padres pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors San Diego Padres
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Cardinals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cardinals has a 52% win probability, while Padres has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.