New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
MLBregular • 2026-2027 Season
Scheduled
CIN 55%45% NYM
Cincinnati Reds 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Reds:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Mets (away)
Reds (home)
45%
Win probability
55%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Reds55%
has a slight edge to win
Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors CIN
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Reds
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
NYM
CIN
Home Field Advantage
Favours NYM|Favours CIN
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 6/12/2026, 8:45:02 AM
Key Players
Mets
Christian ScottSP
Zach ThorntonSP
Nolan McLeanSP
Freddy PeraltaSP
Jonah TongSP
Reds
Nick LodoloSP
Brady SingerSP
Andrew AbbottSP
Rhett LowderSP
Chris PaddackSP
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Reds has a 55% win probability, while Mets has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.