MLB2026 season
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- PHI at MIAWed, Jul 29, 2026MIA 55%MIA 6–8
- PHI at MIATue, Jul 28, 2026MIA 55%MIA 0–1
- PHI at MIAMon, Jul 27, 2026MIA 61%MIA 7–8
- MIA at PHIWed, Jun 17, 2026PHI 54%MIA 12–4
- MIA at PHITue, Jun 16, 2026PHI 54%PHI 2–8
- MIA at PHIMon, Jun 15, 2026PHI 54%PHI 0–7
- PHI at MIAMon, May 4, 2026MIA 55%PHI 1–0
- PHI at MIASun, May 3, 2026MIA 55%PHI 7–2
- PHI at MIASat, May 2, 2026MIA 55%MIA 0–4
- PHI at MIAFri, May 1, 2026MIA 57%PHI 6–5
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10 decided games
Meetings graded
10
2026
Correct calls
6
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Miami Marlins
- Injuries — Marlins healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage — Marlins are 38-28 at home this season; Braves are 39-33 on the road
Philadelphia Phillies
- Injuries — Phillies healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 10 out, 0 doubtful
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