Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Rays:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TB 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
TB home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Rays 4-3.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 53% confidence, but the Nationals pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Nationals
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 53% win probability, while Nationals has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.