San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Marlins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Marlins rest advantage (2 days rest) over Giants (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 54% (−2)
- If the rest edge were neutral: MIA 56% (0)
Win probability movement
MIA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Marlins defeated the Giants 4-3.
Our model predicted the Marlins would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Marlins and was a contributing factor: Marlins rest advantage (2 days rest) over Giants (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating favored the Giants and was a contributing factor: Marlins ELO 1500 vs Giants ELO 1522 (diff: -22)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Marlins won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- Rest DaysFavors Miami Marlins
- ELO RatingFavors San Francisco Giants
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Giants
No player data available
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 56% win probability, while Giants has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.