San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mariners:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SEA 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
SEA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Mariners 7-4.
Our model predicted the Mariners would win with 53% confidence, but the Padres won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Mariners (back-to-back) vs Padres (back-to-back)
- ELO Rating favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Mariners ELO 1478 vs Padres ELO 1553 (diff: -75)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- Rest DaysNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors San Diego Padres
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 53% win probability, while Padres has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.