MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, May 14 | SEA at HOU Mariners at Astros | SEA 45.1% | HOU 3–SEA 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | MIA at MIN Marlins at Twins | MIA 45.1% | MIN 5–MIA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | SD at MIL Padres at Brewers | SD 45.1% | MIL 1–SD 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | WSH at CIN Nationals at Reds | WSH 45.1% | CIN 7–WSH 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | COL at PIT Rockies at Pirates | COL 45.1% | PIT 4–COL 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | SF at LAD Giants at Dodgers | SF 45.1% | LAD 2–SF 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | STL at OAK Cardinals at Athletics | STL 45.1% | OAK 4–STL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 13 | SEA at HOU Mariners at Astros | SEA 45.1% | HOU 2–SEA 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | TB at TOR Rays at Blue Jays | TB 45.1% | TOR 6–TB 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | PHI at BOS Phillies at Red Sox | PHI 45.1% | BOS 1–PHI 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | WSH at CIN Nationals at Reds | WSH 45.1% | CIN 4–WSH 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | NYY at BAL Yankees at Orioles | NYY 45.1% | BAL 2–NYY 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | SF at LAD Giants at Dodgers | SF 45.1% | LAD 3–SF 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | SEA at HOU Mariners at Astros | SEA 45.1% | HOU 1–SEA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 12 | ARI at TEX Diamondbacks at Rangers | ARI 45.1% | TEX 0–ARI 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 11 | TB at TOR Rays at Blue Jays | TB 45.1% | TOR 5–TB 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | DET at KC Tigers at Royals | DET 45.1% | KC 3–DET 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | ATL at LAD Braves at Dodgers | ATL 45.1% | LAD 2–ATL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | MIN at CLE Twins at Guardians | MIN 45.1% | CLE 4–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | LAA at TOR Angels at Blue Jays | LAA 45.1% | TOR 1–LAA 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | TB at BOS Rays at Red Sox | TB 45.1% | BOS 1–TB 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | ATL at LAD Braves at Dodgers | ATL 45.1% | LAD 2–ATL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 10 | PIT at SF Pirates at Giants | PIT 45.1% | SF 3–PIT 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 9 | MIN at CLE Twins at Guardians | MIN 45.1% | CLE 1–MIN 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 9 | OAK at BAL Athletics at Orioles | OAK 45.1% | BAL 2–OAK 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 9 | STL at SD Cardinals at Padres | STL 45.1% | SD 0–STL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 9 | NYM at ARI Mets at Diamondbacks | NYM 45.1% | ARI 1–NYM 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 9 | CHC at TEX Cubs at Rangers | CHC 45.1% | TEX 1–CHC 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 8 | SEA at CWS Mariners at Chicago White Sox | SEA 45.1% | CWS 8–SEA 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 8 | WSH at MIA Nationals at Marlins | WSH 45.1% | MIA 2–WSH 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 8 | OAK at BAL Athletics at Orioles | OAK 45.1% | BAL 3–OAK 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 8 | COL at PHI Rockies at Phillies | COL 45.1% | PHI 7–COL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 8 | STL at SD Cardinals at Padres | STL 45.1% | SD 1–STL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 7 | TB at BOS Rays at Red Sox | TB 45.1% | BOS 4–TB 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 7 | OAK at PHI Athletics at Phillies | OAK 45.1% | PHI 1–OAK 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 7 | PIT at ARI Pirates at Diamondbacks | PIT 45.1% | ARI 2–PIT 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 7 | CLE at KC Guardians at Royals | CLE 45.1% | KC 5–CLE 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 7 | PIT at ARI Pirates at Diamondbacks | PIT 45.1% | ARI 0–PIT 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 7 | NYM at COL Mets at Rockies | NYM 45.1% | COL 5–NYM 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | CLE at KC Guardians at Royals | CLE 45.1% | KC 1–CLE 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | TEX at NYY Rangers at Yankees | TEX 45.1% | NYY 1–TEX 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | BAL at MIA Orioles at Marlins | BAL 45.1% | MIA 4–BAL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | BOS at DET Red Sox at Tigers | BOS 45.1% | DET 0–BOS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | SD at SF Padres at Giants | SD 45.1% | SF 1–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | LAD at HOU Dodgers at Astros | LAD 45.1% | HOU 2–LAD 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | MIL at STL Brewers at Cardinals | MIL 45.1% | STL 2–MIL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | SD at SF Padres at Giants | SD 45.1% | SF 5–SD 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 6 | ATL at SEA Braves at Mariners | ATL 45.1% | SEA 2–ATL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 5 | MIN at WSH Twins at Nationals | MIN 45.1% | WSH 3–MIN 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 5 | BOS at DET Red Sox at Tigers | BOS 45.1% | DET 3–BOS 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 351–400 of 860 surprises