MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, May 5 | CWS at LAA Chicago White Sox at Angels | CWS 45.1% | LAA 0–CWS 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 5 | LAD at HOU Dodgers at Astros | LAD 45.1% | HOU 3–LAD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 4 | PHI at MIA Phillies at Marlins | PHI 45.1% | MIA 0–PHI 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 4 | NYM at COL Mets at Rockies | NYM 45.1% | COL 2–NYM 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | KC at SEA Royals at Mariners | KC 45.1% | SEA 1–KC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | NYM at LAA Mets at Angels | NYM 45.1% | LAA 1–NYM 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | ATL at COL Braves at Rockies | ATL 45.1% | COL 6–ATL 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | LAD at STL Dodgers at Cardinals | LAD 45.1% | STL 1–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | PHI at MIA Phillies at Marlins | PHI 45.1% | MIA 2–PHI 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | HOU at BOS Astros at Red Sox | HOU 45.1% | BOS 1–HOU 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | KC at SEA Royals at Mariners | KC 45.1% | SEA 2–KC 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | CWS at SD Chicago White Sox at Padres | CWS 45.1% | SD 0–CWS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 3 | ATL at COL Braves at Rockies | ATL 45.1% | COL 1–ATL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | HOU at BOS Astros at Red Sox | HOU 45.1% | BOS 3–HOU 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | MIL at WSH Brewers at Nationals | MIL 45.1% | WSH 1–MIL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | CLE at OAK Guardians at Athletics | CLE 45.1% | OAK 6–CLE 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | TOR at MIN Blue Jays at Twins | TOR 45.1% | MIN 4–TOR 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | CWS at SD Chicago White Sox at Padres | CWS 45.1% | SD 2–CWS 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | ATL at COL Braves at Rockies | ATL 45.1% | COL 6–ATL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 2 | TOR at MIN Blue Jays at Twins | TOR 45.1% | MIN 3–TOR 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 1 | MIL at WSH Brewers at Nationals | MIL 45.1% | WSH 1–MIL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 30 | HOU at BAL Astros at Orioles | HOU 45.1% | BAL 5–HOU 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 30 | WSH at NYM Nationals at Mets | WSH 45.1% | NYM 4–WSH 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 30 | STL at PIT Cardinals at Pirates | STL 45.1% | PIT 5–STL 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 30 | DET at ATL Tigers at Braves | DET 45.1% | ATL 2–DET 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | ARI at MIL Diamondbacks at Brewers | ARI 45.1% | MIL 2–ARI 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | WSH at NYM Nationals at Mets | WSH 45.1% | NYM 2–WSH 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | STL at PIT Cardinals at Pirates | STL 45.1% | PIT 4–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | COL at CIN Rockies at Reds | COL 45.1% | CIN 2–COL 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | CHC at SD Cubs at Padres | CHC 45.1% | SD 4–CHC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | MIA at LAD Marlins at Dodgers | MIA 45.1% | LAD 2–MIA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | SEA at MIN Mariners at Twins | SEA 45.1% | MIN 3–SEA 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | MIA at LAD Marlins at Dodgers | MIA 45.1% | LAD 1–MIA 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | CHC at SD Cubs at Padres | CHC 45.1% | SD 3–CHC 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | KC at OAK Royals at Athletics | KC 45.1% | OAK 1–KC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 29 | NYY at TEX Yankees at Rangers | NYY 45.1% | TEX 2–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 28 | SEA at MIN Mariners at Twins | SEA 45.1% | MIN 1–SEA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 28 | STL at PIT Cardinals at Pirates | STL 45.1% | PIT 7–STL 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 28 | TB at CLE Rays at Guardians | TB 45.1% | CLE 0–TB 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 28 | NYY at TEX Yankees at Rangers | NYY 45.1% | TEX 2–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 27 | BOS at TOR Red Sox at Blue Jays | BOS 45.1% | TOR 0–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 27 | STL at PIT Cardinals at Pirates | STL 45.1% | PIT 2–STL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 27 | TB at CLE Rays at Guardians | TB 45.1% | CLE 2–TB 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | COL at NYM Rockies at Mets | COL 45.1% | NYM 0–COL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | OAK at TEX Athletics at Rangers | OAK 45.1% | TEX 1–OAK 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | SEA at STL Mariners at Cardinals | SEA 45.1% | STL 2–SEA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | WSH at CWS Nationals at Chicago White Sox | WSH 45.1% | CWS 1–WSH 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | DET at CIN Tigers at Reds | DET 45.1% | CIN 3–DET 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | COL at NYM Rockies at Mets | COL 45.1% | NYM 1–COL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 26 | BOS at BAL Red Sox at Orioles | BOS 45.1% | BAL 3–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 401–450 of 860 surprises