MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Apr 25 | PHI at ATL Phillies at Braves | PHI 45.1% | ATL 5–PHI 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 25 | NYY at HOU Yankees at Astros | NYY 45.1% | HOU 3–NYY 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 25 | PIT at MIL Pirates at Brewers | PIT 45.1% | MIL 3–PIT 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 25 | SD at ARI Padres at Diamondbacks | SD 45.1% | ARI 4–SD 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 25 | WSH at CWS Nationals at Chicago White Sox | WSH 45.1% | CWS 3–WSH 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 25 | SEA at STL Mariners at Cardinals | SEA 45.1% | STL 9–SEA 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 25 | BOS at BAL Red Sox at Orioles | BOS 45.1% | BAL 1–BOS 17 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | CHC at LAD Cubs at Dodgers | CHC 45.1% | LAD 4–CHC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | SEA at STL Mariners at Cardinals | SEA 45.1% | STL 2–SEA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | COL at NYM Rockies at Mets | COL 45.1% | NYM 3–COL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | CLE at TOR Guardians at Blue Jays | CLE 45.1% | TOR 6–CLE 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 23 | NYY at BOS Yankees at Red Sox | NYY 45.1% | BOS 2–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 23 | LAD at SF Dodgers at Giants | LAD 45.1% | SF 0–LAD 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 23 | CWS at ARI Chicago White Sox at Diamondbacks | CWS 45.1% | ARI 1–CWS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 23 | SD at COL Padres at Rockies | SD 45.1% | COL 8–SD 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 23 | ATL at WSH Braves at Nationals | ATL 45.1% | WSH 2–ATL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 22 | PIT at TEX Pirates at Rangers | PIT 45.1% | TEX 4–PIT 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 22 | NYY at BOS Yankees at Red Sox | NYY 45.1% | BOS 1–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 22 | ATL at WSH Braves at Nationals | ATL 45.1% | WSH 6–ATL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 22 | BAL at KC Orioles at Royals | BAL 45.1% | KC 6–BAL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 22 | HOU at CLE Astros at Guardians | HOU 45.1% | CLE 0–HOU 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | CWS at ARI Chicago White Sox at Diamondbacks | CWS 45.1% | ARI 5–CWS 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | OAK at SEA Athletics at Mariners | OAK 45.1% | SEA 2–OAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | TOR at LAA Blue Jays at Angels | TOR 45.1% | LAA 2–TOR 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | MIN at NYM Twins at Mets | MIN 45.1% | NYM 3–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | STL at MIA Cardinals at Marlins | STL 45.1% | MIA 3–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | CIN at TB Reds at Rays | CIN 45.1% | TB 6–CIN 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | OAK at SEA Athletics at Mariners | OAK 45.1% | SEA 4–OAK 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | TOR at LAA Blue Jays at Angels | TOR 45.1% | LAA 2–TOR 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | LAD at COL Dodgers at Rockies | LAD 45.1% | COL 3–LAD 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | BAL at KC Orioles at Royals | BAL 45.1% | KC 5–BAL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | CIN at TB Reds at Rays | CIN 45.1% | TB 1–CIN 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | HOU at CLE Astros at Guardians | HOU 45.1% | CLE 2–HOU 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | ATL at PHI Braves at Phillies | ATL 45.1% | PHI 2–ATL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | DET at BOS Tigers at Red Sox | DET 45.1% | BOS 2–DET 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | TOR at ARI Blue Jays at Diamondbacks | TOR 45.1% | ARI 4–TOR 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | SD at LAA Padres at Angels | SD 45.1% | LAA 1–SD 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | CWS at OAK Chicago White Sox at Athletics | CWS 45.1% | OAK 4–CWS 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | STL at HOU Cardinals at Astros | STL 45.1% | HOU 5–STL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 19 | CIN at MIN Reds at Twins | CIN 45.1% | MIN 4–CIN 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | SD at LAA Padres at Angels | SD 45.1% | LAA 1–SD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | ATL at PHI Braves at Phillies | ATL 45.1% | PHI 1–ATL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | STL at HOU Cardinals at Astros | STL 45.1% | HOU 5–STL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | DET at BOS Tigers at Red Sox | DET 45.1% | BOS 1–DET 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | MIL at MIA Brewers at Marlins | MIL 45.1% | MIA 2–MIL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | SF at WSH Giants at Nationals | SF 45.1% | WSH 6–SF 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | TB at PIT Rays at Pirates | TB 45.1% | PIT 7–TB 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 18 | CIN at MIN Reds at Twins | CIN 45.1% | MIN 4–CIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 17 | CWS at OAK Chicago White Sox at Athletics | CWS 45.1% | OAK 2–CWS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 17 | TEX at SEA Rangers at Mariners | TEX 45.1% | SEA 0–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 451–500 of 860 surprises