MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Apr 17 | LAD at COL Dodgers at Rockies | LAD 45.1% | COL 1–LAD 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 17 | MIL at MIA Brewers at Marlins | MIL 45.1% | MIA 5–MIL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 17 | SF at WSH Giants at Nationals | SF 45.1% | WSH 5–SF 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 17 | BAL at CLE Orioles at Guardians | BAL 45.1% | CLE 4–BAL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 16 | COL at HOU Rockies at Astros | COL 45.1% | HOU 2–COL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 16 | TEX at OAK Rangers at Athletics | TEX 45.1% | OAK 6–TEX 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 16 | TB at CWS Rays at Chicago White Sox | TB 45.1% | CWS 3–TB 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 16 | LAA at NYY Angels at Yankees | LAA 45.1% | NYY 4–LAA 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 16 | SF at CIN Giants at Reds | SF 45.1% | CIN 0–SF 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 16 | WSH at PIT Nationals at Pirates | WSH 45.1% | PIT 7–WSH 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 15 | TB at CWS Rays at Chicago White Sox | TB 45.1% | CWS 3–TB 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 15 | CHC at PHI Cubs at Phillies | CHC 45.1% | PHI 2–CHC 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 15 | BOS at MIN Red Sox at Twins | BOS 45.1% | MIN 5–BOS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 15 | ARI at BAL Diamondbacks at Orioles | ARI 45.1% | BAL 5–ARI 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 14 | TB at CWS Rays at Chicago White Sox | TB 45.1% | CWS 5–TB 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 14 | TOR at MIL Blue Jays at Brewers | TOR 45.1% | MIL 7–TOR 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 14 | LAA at NYY Angels at Yankees | LAA 45.1% | NYY 1–LAA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 14 | CHC at PHI Cubs at Phillies | CHC 45.1% | PHI 4–CHC 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 14 | WSH at PIT Nationals at Pirates | WSH 45.1% | PIT 4–WSH 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 14 | ARI at BAL Diamondbacks at Orioles | ARI 45.1% | BAL 3–ARI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 13 | TEX at OAK Rangers at Athletics | TEX 45.1% | OAK 1–TEX 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 13 | CLE at STL Guardians at Cardinals | CLE 45.1% | STL 3–CLE 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | TEX at LAD Rangers at Dodgers | TEX 45.1% | LAD 2–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | BOS at STL Red Sox at Cardinals | BOS 45.1% | STL 3–BOS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | WSH at MIL Nationals at Brewers | WSH 45.1% | MIL 6–WSH 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | CWS at KC Chicago White Sox at Royals | CWS 45.1% | KC 5–CWS 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | LAA at CIN Angels at Reds | LAA 45.1% | CIN 6–LAA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | OAK at NYM Athletics at Mets | OAK 45.1% | NYM 0–OAK 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | MIN at TOR Twins at Blue Jays | MIN 45.1% | TOR 2–MIN 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 12 | ARI at PHI Diamondbacks at Phillies | ARI 45.1% | PHI 3–ARI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 11 | CLE at ATL Guardians at Braves | CLE 45.1% | ATL 0–CLE 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 11 | BOS at STL Red Sox at Cardinals | BOS 45.1% | STL 1–BOS 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 11 | WSH at MIL Nationals at Brewers | WSH 45.1% | MIL 1–WSH 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 11 | OAK at NYM Athletics at Mets | OAK 45.1% | NYM 6–OAK 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 11 | MIN at TOR Twins at Blue Jays | MIN 45.1% | TOR 4–MIN 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 11 | PIT at CHC Pirates at Cubs | PIT 45.1% | CHC 3–PIT 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 10 | WSH at MIL Nationals at Brewers | WSH 45.1% | MIL 3–WSH 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 10 | SF at BAL Giants at Orioles | SF 45.1% | BAL 3–SF 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 10 | OAK at NYM Athletics at Mets | OAK 45.1% | NYM 0–OAK 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 9 | CWS at KC Chicago White Sox at Royals | CWS 45.1% | KC 0–CWS 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 9 | ARI at NYM Diamondbacks at Mets | ARI 45.1% | NYM 1–ARI 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 9 | OAK at NYY Athletics at Yankees | OAK 45.1% | NYY 0–OAK 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | OAK at NYY Athletics at Yankees | OAK 45.1% | NYY 2–OAK 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | CHC at TB Cubs at Rays | CHC 45.1% | TB 2–CHC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | ARI at NYM Diamondbacks at Mets | ARI 45.1% | NYM 2–ARI 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | ATL at LAA Braves at Angels | ATL 45.1% | LAA 2–ATL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | STL at WSH Cardinals at Nationals | STL 45.1% | WSH 1–STL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | BAL at CWS Orioles at Chicago White Sox | BAL 45.1% | CWS 3–BAL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 8 | SD at PIT Padres at Pirates | SD 45.1% | PIT 2–SD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 7 | ATL at LAA Braves at Angels | ATL 45.1% | LAA 2–ATL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 501–550 of 860 surprises