MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Apr 7 | LAD at TOR Dodgers at Blue Jays | LAD 45.1% | TOR 1–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 7 | STL at WSH Cardinals at Nationals | STL 45.1% | WSH 6–STL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 7 | CIN at MIA Reds at Marlins | CIN 45.1% | MIA 3–CIN 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 7 | CHC at TB Cubs at Rays | CHC 45.1% | TB 2–CHC 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 7 | BAL at CWS Orioles at Chicago White Sox | BAL 45.1% | CWS 2–BAL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | PHI at SF Phillies at Giants | PHI 45.1% | SF 4–PHI 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | BAL at CWS Orioles at Chicago White Sox | BAL 45.1% | CWS 1–BAL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | LAD at TOR Dodgers at Blue Jays | LAD 45.1% | TOR 2–LAD 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | MIL at BOS Brewers at Red Sox | MIL 45.1% | BOS 6–MIL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | SD at PIT Padres at Pirates | SD 45.1% | PIT 0–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | CIN at MIA Reds at Marlins | CIN 45.1% | MIA 0–CIN 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Apr 6 | KC at CLE Royals at Guardians | KC 45.1% | CLE 2–KC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | STL at DET Cardinals at Tigers | STL 45.1% | DET 3–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | NYM at SF Mets at Giants | NYM 45.1% | SF 2–NYM 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | CIN at TEX Reds at Rangers | CIN 45.1% | TEX 1–CIN 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | MIL at KC Brewers at Royals | MIL 45.1% | KC 5–MIL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | TB at MIN Rays at Twins | TB 45.1% | MIN 1–TB 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | MIA at NYY Marlins at Yankees | MIA 45.1% | NYY 6–MIA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | SD at BOS Padres at Red Sox | SD 45.1% | BOS 6–SD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | LAD at WSH Dodgers at Nationals | LAD 45.1% | WSH 6–LAD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Apr 5 | CHC at CLE Cubs at Guardians | CHC 45.1% | CLE 0–CHC 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | NYM at SF Mets at Giants | NYM 45.1% | SF 0–NYM 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | PHI at COL Phillies at Rockies | PHI 45.1% | COL 1–PHI 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | TB at MIN Rays at Twins | TB 45.1% | MIN 1–TB 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | CIN at TEX Reds at Rangers | CIN 45.1% | TEX 0–CIN 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | SD at BOS Padres at Red Sox | SD 45.1% | BOS 2–SD 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | HOU at OAK Astros at Athletics | HOU 45.1% | OAK 0–HOU 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | LAD at WSH Dodgers at Nationals | LAD 45.1% | WSH 5–LAD 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 3 | NYM at SF Mets at Giants | NYM 45.1% | SF 3–NYM 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 3 | ATL at ARI Braves at Diamondbacks | ATL 45.1% | ARI 0–ATL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 3 | SEA at LAA Mariners at Angels | SEA 45.1% | LAA 1–SEA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 3 | PHI at COL Phillies at Rockies | PHI 45.1% | COL 1–PHI 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 3 | CIN at TEX Reds at Rangers | CIN 45.1% | TEX 3–CIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 2 | ATL at ARI Braves at Diamondbacks | ATL 45.1% | ARI 2–ATL 17 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Apr 2 | MIN at KC Twins at Royals | MIN 45.1% | KC 1–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 1 | CLE at LAD Guardians at Dodgers | CLE 45.1% | LAD 1–CLE 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 1 | NYY at SEA Yankees at Mariners | NYY 45.1% | SEA 3–NYY 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 1 | COL at TOR Rockies at Blue Jays | COL 45.1% | TOR 1–COL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Apr 1 | PIT at CIN Pirates at Reds | PIT 45.1% | CIN 3–PIT 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Mar 31 | NYY at SEA Yankees at Mariners | NYY 45.1% | SEA 0–NYY 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Mar 31 | SF at SD Giants at Padres | SF 45.1% | SD 3–SF 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Mar 31 | LAA at CHC Angels at Cubs | LAA 45.1% | CHC 0–LAA 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Mar 31 | OAK at ATL Athletics at Braves | OAK 45.1% | ATL 2–OAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Mar 31 | PIT at CIN Pirates at Reds | PIT 45.1% | CIN 3–PIT 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Mar 31 | TEX at BAL Rangers at Orioles | TEX 45.1% | BAL 5–TEX 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Mar 30 | SF at SD Giants at Padres | SF 45.1% | SD 2–SF 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Mar 30 | NYM at STL Mets at Cardinals | NYM 45.1% | STL 2–NYM 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Mar 30 | TB at MIL Rays at Brewers | TB 45.1% | MIL 2–TB 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Mar 30 | COL at TOR Rockies at Blue Jays | COL 45.1% | TOR 5–COL 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Mar 30 | CWS at MIA Chicago White Sox at Marlins | CWS 45.1% | MIA 4–CWS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 551–600 of 860 surprises